The downside remains favored in AUDUSD towards the .6250s. The former 4th wave low is .6254 and VWAP from the March low is currently .6249. This is also the lower parallel of the bearish fork from the high. If AUDUSD is bearish then resistance should be about .6460, which is the underside of the line off of the 4/21 and 5/6 lows and VWAP from the April high. Seasonal tendencies are bearish for the next few weeks (see below).
The chart of spot gold is cleaner show I’m showing it instead of futures. Price broke out of the triangle described yesterday. That’s bullish! The top side of the former triangle line should be support now near 1720/22 (former highs at 1722).
The British pound fell to its lowest levels against the US dollar since April 7th in early trading on Thursday. Grim GDP data resulting from the coronavirus lockdown weighed on sterling, while the dollar was lifted by dismissive comments on negative interest rates by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
I like to say ‘resistance is resistance until it’s broken’. Gold has been consolidating in a triangle since the April high and is testing the triangle resistance. Triangles tend to resolve in the direction of the previous trend…in this case higher (triangles can occur at highs as consolidation tops…the key is to wait for the break). At the current juncture, I lean bullish. The triangle objective is 1911, which is just under the all-time high of 1923.70. Spot gold (see below) is just under its triangle resistance line and the equivalent objective is 1834.
Daily trading analysis video with Jamie Saettele (13/05)
ES broke the noted level at the end of the day. 2885 is now resistance if reached and general focus is towards the 2637/97 zone (yellow box). The bottom of this zone was resistance in March. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the February high. The top of the zone is VWAP from the low and the 3/13 high.
Bitcoin has just gone through its third ‘halving’ since it launched 11 years ago. The event takes place roughly every four years to cut the reward given to miners for solving complex mathematical problems using high-powered computers.
The S&P (looking at SPY here) remains magentized to the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the high. This is also the September 2018 high and May 2019 high (that’s right…exactly flat over the last year). Good spot to turn down?
Many analysts feel that we are not out of the woods yet. We see most economies talking about lifting social distancing restrictions, which means that we can drive our cars to the petrol station, but we aren’t likely to be heading to the airport anytime soon. Manufacturing may begin but it will probably limp back to life as companies will have to ease the workforce back, slowly and safely, and perhaps with limited production.