Market Update 5/25 – CTAs Chasing USD Shorts Again
Not surprisingly, CTAs are chasing USD shorts again. Of course, this tends to happen just before a turn (then they chase the USD higher).
Market Update 5/24 – NOKJPY Idea
NOKJPY is an interesting chart. Price has rolled over from the trendline that connects the 2007 and 2013 highs. If a bigger down move is underway, then I’d expect resistance from the underside of the red trendline near 13.15. A longer term chart is below.
Market Update 5/20 – Tracking a Big EURJPY Level
EURJPY action since the October low has taken the form of a wedge. The rally stalled this week after taking out the September 2018 high but I’m wondering if we get a final spike into 134.30, which is both the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2014 high and 2 equal legs up from the 2020 low. A close-up view is below.
Market Update 5/19 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD about to Break Down?
Since the 5/10 high, AUDUSD has dropped in 5 waves, rallied in 3 waves, and dropped in 5 waves at a lesser degree. An Elliott wave textbook! Resistance should be .7760/70 now. Broader downside focus is .7415 (2 legs down from the February high and the September high…see below). 5/18 – AUDUSD tagged .7814 today. Again, this is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/10 and well-defined resistance since early January. This is a great spot for AUDUSD to roll over. .7730 needs to give in order to ‘open the floodgates’. This level is 2021 VWAP, VWAP from the February high, and VWAP from the March low (see futures chart below).
Market Update 5/18 – Keeping an Eye on Aussie Crosses
AUDJPY is in black and BTCUSD (bitcoin) is in magenta. My six year old son is standing behind me as a I type and just said ‘they look the same’. He’s right! We’ve been waiting for AUDJPY to tag the underside of the trendline from the 2008 low since February (AUDJPY is below). That line is currently about 86.50. I’d love a spike into that level to short but I’m not sure that happens with BTCUSD already breaking down. I’ll wait for 86.50 (or so) unless price breaks under the line that crosses lows since 4/23 (see magenta line on 4 hour chart below)
Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips
The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar?
BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).
Market Update 5/11 – Watch the Nikkei
The Nikkei reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork mentioned 3 weeks ago. The level is also support from March (3/5 and 3/24 lows). Huge level! A break below would complete a topping process that has been underway since 2/16 (descending triangle). Note that this possible topping pattern has taken place at the upper parallel of the channel from the 2009 low (see monthly chart below).
Market Update 5/10 – GBP Crosses Reach Important Levels
GBPUSD has soared over the last 2 trading days. Today’s break above the well-defined 1.4000 could propel price on its next leg up within the long term bull move but there is consideration for resistance at the current level. Daily reversal resistance is 1.4140 (2/24 close) and the underside of the trendline from the March 2020 low is slightly higher (red line). Let’s see what happens over the next few days.
Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning
A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!