Market Update 6/2 – BTCUSD Triangle?

Market Update 6/2 – BTCUSD Triangle?

ByJamie Saettele

BTCUSD may have completed a 4th wave triangle within a 5 wave decline from the April high. The decline channels in perfect Elliott form and proposed wave 4 has traced out a well-defined triangle. If the proposed interpretation is correct, then BTCUSD is lower from the current level (this pattern negates above 40904).
5/19 – BTCUSD tagged the 32000 level (low was 30000) and snapped back but I don’t think this is the low. Notice where the snap back rally stalled…right at the underside of the former channel line (magenta channel). This is the ‘slingshot’ setup that I’m so fond of. If strength resumes then VWAP levels to know for resistance are 44400 (2021 VWAP) and VWAP from the top, which is currently 50000. The ultimate support is 19666, which is the 2017 high and the 25 line of the channel that we’ve been following. Recall that we turned bearish in February at the 75 line because the rally materialized at the 25 line. This is knows as median line symmetry (see daily chart below)!

Market Update 6/1 – British Pound Reversal!

Market Update 6/1 – British Pound Reversal!

ByJamie Saettele

Pound futures made a daily volume reversal today. The signals shown are at least one year high/lows with at least 1.5 x the 20 day average volume. Those are some timely signals. Price is testing the center line of the channel from the April low (see spot chart below). In the event of a bounce, resistance is 1.4210. Near term downside focus is the lower parallel, currently near 1.4005.

Market Update 5/19 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD about to Break Down?

Market Update 5/19 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD about to Break Down?

ByJamie Saettele

Since the 5/10 high, AUDUSD has dropped in 5 waves, rallied in 3 waves, and dropped in 5 waves at a lesser degree. An Elliott wave textbook! Resistance should be .7760/70 now. Broader downside focus is .7415 (2 legs down from the February high and the September high…see below). 5/18 – AUDUSD tagged .7814 today. Again, this is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/10 and well-defined resistance since early January. This is a great spot for AUDUSD to roll over. .7730 needs to give in order to ‘open the floodgates’. This level is 2021 VWAP, VWAP from the February high, and VWAP from the March low (see futures chart below).

Market Update 5/18 – Keeping an Eye on Aussie Crosses

Market Update 5/18 – Keeping an Eye on Aussie Crosses

ByJamie Saettele

AUDJPY is in black and BTCUSD (bitcoin) is in magenta. My six year old son is standing behind me as a I type and just said ‘they look the same’. He’s right! We’ve been waiting for AUDJPY to tag the underside of the trendline from the 2008 low since February (AUDJPY is below). That line is currently about 86.50. I’d love a spike into that level to short but I’m not sure that happens with BTCUSD already breaking down. I’ll wait for 86.50 (or so) unless price breaks under the line that crosses lows since 4/23 (see magenta line on 4 hour chart below)

Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips

Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips

ByJamie Saettele

The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar?
BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).