I’ve been tracking EURJPY for a top as it approached the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low since February. On Tuesday, price spiked higher and reversed yet just missed the trendline. I ‘want’ to short. A break of the trendline from the November low is needed in order to trigger.
AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
The sharp USD drop on Monday makes me neutral at best for now. I had wanted to see USDOLLAR hold the median line from the multiyear structure in order to stay constructive (see below). That said, DXY has reached VWAP from the January low and USDOLLAR has reached the 3/18 low. The 61.8% retrace for USDOLLAR is slightly lower at 11705. Keep an eye on these levels for possible support.
USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245
I was wrong to think that the USDOLLAR pullback was complete last week but the long cited 11795 level has been reached. This is a decision point…plain and simple. The level is defined by the early February high and median line of the structure that originates at the 2017 high. The drop also channels in a corrective manner. Bottom line, price needs to turn up now in order to remain constructive on a swing basis.
NZDUSD failed to turn lower from the line that extends off of the February and 3/18 highs. The structure from the February high is now a Schiff fork. The upper parallel intersects with the well-defined .7100 level and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. If NZDUSD is lower, then .7100 is the price to short.
Copper is once again testing the critical trendline from the March 2020 low. This line is reinforced by the 50 day average, which has been precise support since November. I’m waiting for a break lower in order to turn bearish copper.
The poke above the 2018-2020 line was short lived as USDJPY has reversed all of last week’s gains. The failed break above this line makes for a bearish setup. Near term, watch for a bounce near 108.80 and for resistance near 109.85-110.00. I favor shorts into the proposed resistance zone.
GBPJPY topped just before 153.85 (high was 153.41). The cross made a J-Spike in the process. The drop is impulsive in nature and the proposed resistance zone is 152.30/70. The downside level of interest is the 3/24 low at 148.53.