Another month is in the books and SPX continues to trade ‘heavily’ under the its ‘meridian line’. An inside month formed in October. Recall that September was an outside bearish month (see the close up view below). Of note is XHB (homebuilders), which made a monthly volume reversal in October (see below). Is this one of the last segments of the market to put in a top?
The USDCNH, DXY non-confirmation nailed the turn again. Upside is favored for the USD over the next few weeks but there are reasons to suspect that the USD pulls back slightly (so maybe a bounce in equities too). USDCNH pattern is one of those reasons. The rally from the low is in 5 waves so expectations are for a 3 wave pullback. That pullback is underway. The proposed support zone is 6.6690-6.6880.
An announcement from the Australian Securities and Investment Commissions (ASIC) has confirmed new ASIC leverage restrictions in australia.
Bitcoin made a volume reversal today. The high was right at the top of a channel too. The longer term chart is extremely bullish but price could drop to back to 10,000 or just below and still be bullish on a longer term basis. Near term, the BTCUSD reversal lower doesn’t bode well for ‘risk assets’ in general. No, BTCUSD is not a ‘safe haven’. It’s been moving with everything else all year. The ONLY safe haven in the current environment is the USD (maybe Yen and US treasuries too).
It’s not just well-capitalised firms that can benefit from a tailormade price feed. Access to the best forex liquidity feed shouldn’t be exclusive to large institutions churning hundreds of lots per day.
In case you haven’t heard, there are elections (president, congress, senate) in the U.S. next Tuesday, November 3rd. Do markets, notably the U.S. Dollar, tend to trade a certain way before and after U.S. presidential elections? In an attempt to answer this question, I plotted DXY in the 3 months leading up to and one month after every election since 1972 (blue for a Democratic win and Red for a Republican win). Each time series is compared to current DXY (in black). The vertical black line indicates election day. You’ll find these charts at the end of this report.
I’m treating the area around 11600 as near term bull/bear dividing line for Nasdaq futures. As long as price is below this level, I am looking lower. 10989 is a level to be aware of within the range with broader focus on 10300-10442. This is the 7/24 low and 2 equal legs down from the September high.
Brexit will render many capital markets laws obsolete. In particular cross-border passporting rights no longer allow access to EU markets.
2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September. Focus is higher as long as price is above that level. 96-97 is a general zone to look towards. This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.