Education
October 15, 2021
CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
October 13, 2021
Today was important for copper as price reversed lower from well-defined trendline resistance. Simply, if copper is bearish then weakness will accelerate while price remains beneath today’s high. A break above would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that corrective action since May is complete and that another leg up within a longer term bull market is underway.
July 13, 2021
EURUSD held VWAP from the 2020 low (again) so near term focus is higher towards the center line of the channel from the January high, which is about 1.1935. Importantly, notice that the 75 line provided support therefore the 25 line is proposed resistance if reached (as per median line symmetry). The 25 line intersects the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the May high at 1.2081. Watch for support near 1.1825.
May 21, 2021
EURJPY action since the October low has taken the form of a wedge. The rally stalled this week after taking out the September 2018 high but I’m wondering if we get a final spike into 134.30, which is both the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2014 high and 2 equal legs up from the 2020 low. A close-up view is below.
April 21, 2021
AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
February 4, 2021
CADJPY is trading at the channel resistance that originates at the 2018 high. I’m ‘thinking’ lower from the current level but have no reason to enter yet. As noted in the previous chart, crude oil is nearing a potentially important inflection point. This is in interesting given the relationship with CADJPY (see below).
December 23, 2020
NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
November 17, 2020
Bitcoin! Heads up because ‘digital gold’ is quickly approaching its all time high of 19666. Just under this level is a parallel that crosses major levels (mostly from 2015 to 2017). BTCUSD is a long term bull but I’m of the mind that we see a strong reaction from the parallel/all time high.