USDJPY plunged today. Price could bounce from the lower parallel of the short term fork near 108.00. Proposed resistance is the year open and center line at 108.75-109.00. Seasonal tendencies have turned down and the rally from the May low is in 3 waves. The implication is that the rally is complete as a correction and that price is headed for a break of the May low of 105.99.
TLT reached the noted support line on Friday and reversed higher. The importance of this line cannot be overstated. This is the same line that was resistance for major tops since 2012. Another leg higher from here is possible but I don’t have a strong opinion on whether or not that happens. Favor the upside as long as Friday’s low holds. 162 is initial resistance.
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QQQ traded to an all-time high on Wednesday and at today’s open before ending the day down slightly. It’s interesting that the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq futures have not traded all-time highs yet. S&Ps have not either. I’m not sure if this non-confirmation means anything. Time will tell. 223.94 is still seen as an important level (call it the ‘breakage’ point) but weakness under the lower diagonal line (lower magenta line) near 230 would be enough for me to suggest that the uptrend has broken.
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Gold prices fell by 2% on Wednesday as stocks rallied on hopes of a faster than expected recovery from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, investors shrugged of the historic civil unrest in the United States and US/China trade tensions.
SPX traded to 3130.94 today. The red line was reached but not the 78.6% retrace. On SPY however today’s high was 313.22, which is the exact 78.6% retrace. Also, a 30 minute volume reversal triggered on SPY (see chart below). This is the 4th such bearish reversal since the March low. The previous 3 were at least near term highs. I’m thinking lower from here.
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Gold is in its 8th week of sideways trade but that may be about to end. The drop from yesterday’s high is the 5th leg within the triangle consolidation. A level to note for support is 1704.40, which is 61.8% of the alternating leg. My ‘bias’ is that gold finds support there and then breaks out to the topside. Be nimble (always) though because a drop beneath 1684 would indicate that the sideways trade is a consolidation top.