Since the 8/6 high in gold, I’ve been closely tracking GLD. The rally from 8/12 found resistance at the 61.8% retrace and a short term bearish channel is confirmed following the median line touch. If GLD has turned lower, then resistance should be 185.00 (38.2% retrace and VWAP from the high).
These 3 charts are from Nordea’s latest FX Weekly. The relationships between the Fed’s balance sheet / USD, Trump’s job approval / USD, and EURUSD / US-Europe Covid case count spread all point to a stronger USD from current levels.
3 lower highs and 2 lower lows since the EURUSD high. I like that strength has failed near VWAP from the high twice and that today’s high is near the high volume level (circled) from 8/19. 1.1880 is still resistance if reached and the big test for the bulls remains the lower parallel, currently near 1.1675 (see below).
Gold started the week on the defensive after being unable to hold above the key $2,000 level late last week. Meanwhile, the US dollar has stabilized, finding its feet after falling to its lowest levels in over two years last Tuesday.
EUR/USD traded sharply lower in early trading on Friday, after eurozone PMI surveys came in weaker than expected.
The EURUSD drop from Tuesday’s high is in 5 waves and price has retraced 38.2% of the decline so weakness could resume now. If that fails to materialize, then the 61.8% is proposed resistance at 1.1903.
USDOLLAR dipped under the 8/2 low today and reversed sharply. Today was a bullish outside day, just like 8/2 (close up chart below). I view today as a re-test / fake-out and still favor upside with the previously mentioned 12350 or so as ‘swing’ upside to target. Near term, the March low at 12129 is a possible reaction level.
GBP/USD inched higher in early trading on Wednesday, reaching its highest levels since December 31st. The recent surge has been largely attributed to a soft US dollar and rising expectations that a Brexit trade deal will be reached by October.
Be aware of the 261.8% expansion of the 2000-2002 decline in QQQ at 283.50 as potential resistance. That’s about 3% higher. The first 2 Fibonacci levels, 127.2% and 161.8%, presented several opportunities (close up view is below). The equivalent level in the Nasdaq Composite Index is 11643.40, which is 4.6% higher than today’s close (2 charts down).