Market Update: January 10
EURUSD is breaking down and focus is on 1.1915 or so. The underside of the just broken trendline near 1.2270 is now proposed resistance. 1.2125 is a possible bounce level.
Market Update: January 7
USDOLLAR continues to hold the May 2015 low. The level is also defined by a parallel that is equidistant from the parallel that was resistance in September and November (magenta lines) when measured from the median line. This is an example of symmetry that we often see in median line analysis. I am looking towards the median line, about 11840, as long as the low holds. A short term structure is shown below that is in play and worth following. 11650 is possible support.
Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence
50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.
Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning
Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
Market Update: 1/4/2021 – The Most Important Update of the Year?
Today’s USDOLLAR low…11635. Price reversed sharply higher after low print. UUP, the USD ETF, made a high volume reversal today. The only other volume reversal on the first day of the year was in 2017, which was a high. This is only the 4th bullish reversal since inception of the ETF. The previous 3 worked. Those charts are below.
Market Update: December 28
GBPUSD continues to oscillate around the critical 1.3500. A gap higher on perceived positive Brexit news was followed by weakness throughout the day…a classic ‘sell the news’ dynamic. 1.3500/25 remains proposed resistance. The top of this zone is a high volume level. Near term focus remains towards 1.3100ish. The level is defined by trendlines and is just under the 12/11 low.
Market Update: December 27
DXY is trading in a tight holiday range. Strength above the 12/21 high of 91.02 is needed in order to suggest that a low (maybe wave 5 of 5) is in place. A longer term chart is shown below. The recent low is a few ticks above the March 2009 high…good spot for a low. 95.00ish is eventual resistance.
Market Update: December 22
NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
Market Update: December 21
Copper continues to trade on both sides of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2011. I continue to follow near term levels from the channel off of the March low. The center line is about 3.50. That needs to break in order to suggest that copper is lower, probably until the lower parallel.