Market Update 1/3 – Early Year Commodity FX Focus
AUDUSD has pulled back from just shy of the noted .7290. I want to see support at/near .7160/70 in order to maintain a constructive view. Failure to do so would leave me neutral at best.
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Market Update 12/29 – USD at Resistance into 2022
This is the last update of 2021. A new calendar year is significant and those details will be addressed next week. The charts in this post highlight why I’m heading into 2022 with a USD bearish mindset. The chart above is a starting point insofar as making a USD bearish argument although the big picture ‘textbook’ trigger doesn’t occur until a break of the channel near 95. Until then, respect potential for strength into the 61.8% retrace of the decline from March 2020 at 97.73.
Market Update 12/28 – Crypto Short Setup
Not much to write about today but crypto did get slammed. The most interesting short setup is SOLUSD. Again, the massive wedge broke in mid-December. A head and shoulders top may be forming since September as well. 186.30 or so is proposed resistance (see below). Immediate downside focus is the proposed neckline near 155.
Market Update 12/27 – AUD and CAD are Constructive into Year-End
AUDUSD continues to make progress within what I believe is a new bullish sequence. As such, focus is on identifying support to buy. .7170 sticks out as the ideal level. This has been an important horizontal level since the September low. The price intersects short term channel support at the end of this week (and year). Maybe we get a big buying opportunity right at the beginning of 2022! .7290 or so is still proposed resistance for a pullback.
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Market Update 12/22 – EURUSD Testing Trigger Line
EURUSD is once again flirting with an important breakout above the trigger line. Price is more or less right at the line now. Again, a break above is needed in order to indicate an important behavior change. Ideally, price rises a bit more before pulling back to the line near 1.1300 and holding it as support. That’s the setup at least! Near term upside remains about 1.1520.
Market Update 12/20 – Watch GBPUSD Closely Down Here
Cable remains above the high, although barely. I continue to ‘think’ higher in GBPUSD given the well-defined price level that price is hovering above. Again, this is VWAP from the March 2020 low and channel support. There is also the high from March 2020 and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020. Finally, there is RSI divergence on the 4 hour chart. Magenta dots in the chart below show divergent readings over the past year.