After Friday’s action, the extent of today’s USD drop was a surprise. Additional EURUSD downside is possible though if price reverses right now, which is the 200 hour average, upper parallel of the short term bearish fork, 75 line within the channel from the March low, and VWAP from the June high (see below). Bottom line, the current level is important so let’s see what happens here before determining strategy.
ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday. Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849. This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down. Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.
Gold prices inched higher in early trading on Thursday, as an increase in coronavirus cases threatened to derail economic recovery from the pandemic. A more dovish than expected June FOMC meeting has also bouyed the yellow metal.
Today was extremely quiet and as a result I don’t have much to update. Australian employment is tonight however so it’s worth another look at AUDUSD. If the flat interpretation is correct, then a lower high is in place at .6977 (and price shouldn’t move much above .6900). The ‘cleanest’ downside level is .6685-.6700. This has been a major level since July (almost a year), 2 equal legs down, and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart (magenta line).
USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.
Risk appetite returned to the market on early on Tuesday as the US Federal Reserve prepared to begin purchasing up to $250 billion in individual corporate bonds. In addition, a report from Bloomberg stating that the Trump administration is preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal helped to lift investors spirits.
I’m thinking that ES carries into 3110/37 before encountering stronger resistance for another leg lower. The zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace and underside of the line that crosses pivots (high and lows) since 2018 (red line).