EURUSD appears to be completing an A-B-C decline from the 1.1185 high. The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.1017 and the 61.8% retrace of the latest leg up is 1.1038. The lower parallel from the short term bullish fork is in line with these levels. Bottom line, look slightly lower before the next leg up gets underway.
1.1218/30 remains in focus but I’m wondering if EURUSD is trading within a much more bullish structure. Notice how price has been riding the median line of the presented fork the last 2 days. This suggests that the structure is ‘in play’. So, either price pulls back and finds support on a related parallel…probably near 1.1106 or 1.1060 or EURUSD explodes higher now. If the latter happens, then the top side of the center line becomes proposed support.
FXY (Japanese Yen ETF) completed a 2 bar volume reversal today. I’ve highlighted all of the bullish reversals since 2016. All but one of the signals nailed the turn. Signals on the other side were reliable as well. Be aware that this chart plots JPYUSD so bullish signals are bearish USDJPY signals. On the spot chart (see below), 123.15/50 should provide resistance if a tradeable high is in place. The top of this zone is VWAP from the high, which has proved useful so far in identifying resistance. The next levels of interest on the downside are 121.40 and 120.40.
The triangle scenario described last week is no longer valid in BTCUSD. However, note that price has reached the 200 day average and the upper parallel from the median line of the fork that originates at the April 2021 high is slightly higher…near 49500. Pay close attention to that level for resistance if reached because since the January low registered right at the median line.
Yen crosses are going through the roof. On a very long term basis, the evidence suggests that they could go A LOT higher. For example, the weekly chart below highlights the breakout above the trendline that originates at the 1990 high! That’s significant. In the near term however, my ‘guess’ is that a pullback is around the corner. USDJPY is closing in on the noted channel from the 2016 low. That’s about 122.70. Major support is anywhere between 117.00 and 118.60s.
Everything since the January low in BTCUSD appears to be a triangle. Triangles typically break in the direction of the prior move…in this case that would be lower. Under Elliott, triangles consist of 5 waves labeled A-B-C-D-E. BTCUSD clearly sports 5 waves since the January low. The implication is that price rolls over soon and eventually breaks beneath the January low.
GBPUSD has already followed through on last week’s reversal. This is somewhat frustrating because we didn’t get a chance to buy proposed 1.3080/90 support. In any case, support now should be 1.3194-1.3210. The big test on the upside (near term at least) is 1.3360. This is the January low and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.
The Dow has reached and responded to the noted level for resistance. The rally from 2/24 also channels in a corrective manner (see hourly chart below). I’m ‘thinking’ lower from this level with possible support near the center line of the corrective channel (about 33860).
USDSEK held up for 2 days before crashing though the median line today. The drop under the median line is a key bearish development for the USD generally. The underside of the line is now resistance…as it was in June, July, August, November, January, and February. That’s currently about 9.56. The next downside test is 9.15/18 (lower parallel and former resistance).
It’s been a little over a week since EURUSD made the low at 1.0806…right on the trendline from the 2017 low. The pullback from the 3/10 high appears in 3 waves and price has held the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the low…so far. I want to see strength above 1.1011 (high volume level) before committing to the long side with initial focus at 1.1215/30, which is 2022 VWAP, the month open, and 2 legs up from the low. FOMC is tomorrow so hopefully we get clarity regarding broader reversal prospects after tomorrow!