Month: February 2022

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/28 – AUDUSD Threatening Breakout

AUDUSD is pressing against the median line again so a drop into the lower parallel probably will not occur. At this point, I’m on alert for ‘median line acceleration’. Strength above .7314 would complete a double bottom with a .7636 target. Proposed near term support now is .7230. RBA is tonight.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/24 – Inflection Point

Today was a classic ‘sell the news’ day with the news being Russia attacking Ukraine. A more accurate term is ‘fade the news’. SPY carved a high volume reversal. We saw one of these at the 1/24 low. Prior to that, you’ve got to go back to 2018.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/22 – USDRUB Reverses…Time for a Risk Squeeze?

You may have heard that Russia is in the news. USDRUB reversed sharply lower today after tagging daily reversal resistance (daily high close from March 2020). This level was also resistance in November 2020 (U.S. election). The reversal lower today ‘fits’ with a coming squeeze in equities and a pullback in gold. I’m wondering if the USD also breaks down. The chart below shows USDRUB and DXY since the beginning of the year. Let’s see…

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/21 – Yen Crosses Lower?

CADJPY is nearing the bottom of the 2022 range. Weakness below the 1/24 low would leave a series of lower highs and lower lows since the January high although 2 legs down from that high is possible support at 89.12. The bigger level is the 161.8% extension, which intersects the lower parallel of the channel from the March 2020 low at 87.55. 90.40/60 is resistance. A zoomed out chart is below.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/17 – Watch out for 1920 in Gold

If the gold breakout is going to face problems then it probably happens near 1920. This is just above the June high, short term channel resistance, and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2020 high. It’s also the 2011 high (see below). In the meantime, 1877 and 1854 are proposed supports.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/16 – AUDUSD Threatens Breakout

AUDUSD is pressing against the trendline from the October high. The center line of the short term bullish fork is also in the vicinity. A break above the trendline opens up the January high at .7314 and possibly the confluence of the upper parallel from the bullish fork and trendline from February 2021 near .7440.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/15 – Gold Re-Test and USDJPY Setup

Gold has pulled back to support defined by the center line from the channel that originates at the September low. A dip under today’s low to test 1842 isn’t out of the question. The top side of former trendline resistance needs to hold as support in order to maintain a bullish stance and look towards 1920.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/14 – Gold Breakout and Crude Resistance

Gold has broken out and the next level to focus on is 1920. This is near the June high and possible channel resistance from the channel that originates at the September low. It’s also the 2011 high. If price pulls back then support should be 1842/47. The top of this zone is the center line of the noted channel. The bottom of the zone is the top side of former trendline resistance.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/10 – USD Bounces at Key Trendline

USDOLLAR held the trendline that originates at the September low today. A break of this line is what I’m waiting for to signal ‘all clear’ on the downside for the USD.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 2/9 – Navigating Near Term USD Levels

EURUSD continues to meander sideways following last week’s rip but that should change with U.S. inflation data tomorrow. I’m wondering if the ‘ideal’ support is 1.1345. This is the top side of the trendline from May and trendline from the May low. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the rally. A drop to there could complete 3 waves down from last week’s high.