Month: December 2020

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Scandex Technical Weekly: 12/13/2020

Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 9

Silver has rolled over from just below the cited level. As long as this bearish channel is intact, focus is lower…possibly a lot lower. The lower parallel intersects 2019 resistance at 19.65 towards the end of December.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

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Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 8

“Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.” That famous prose from The Night Before Christmas also applies to the FX market. EURUSD is likely waiting for ECB on Thursday so Wednesday might be another snoozer. In any case, price is sitting on the center line from the channel off of the November low. Price has bounced from this line the last two days so a break would indicate a near term behavior change. If that happens, then initial downside focus is 1.2040 and the lower parallel, which is about 1.1985 on Wednesday.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 7

GBPUSD is following through on Friday’s reversal. As noted yesterday, this bounce presents a short opportunity. Ideal resistance is about 1.3440 (12/1 and 12/2 highs and underside of the median line). Initial downside focus is the line off of the September and November lows near 1.3030.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Scandex Technical Weekly: 12/06/2020

Interestingly, a daily volume reversal triggered on Friday from a 2 year high in EURUSD. There have only been 4 instances of this happening since inception of the euro (see chart below). If a top is in place at Friday’s high, then impulsive weakness likely extends towards 1.2040 before a bounce. That bounce would present the opportunity to short.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 3

Silver has been trading within a downward sloping channel since the August high. The 11/30 low was right at VWAP from the March low (see SLV chart below), so bullish risk is against Monday’s low. Near term, watch for resistance near 25.07/56. Eventually, focus will be on identifying a higher low against Monday’s low.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 2

Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

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Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: December 1

Copper is trading at its best level since March 2013 and has rallied 7 of the last 8 months. Be aware of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high at 3.6130 for possible resistance. Considering that ‘everything’ is going up against the USD, this level could prove important from a multi-asset perspective.