Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
QQQ traded to an all-time high on Wednesday and at today’s open before ending the day down slightly. It’s interesting that the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq futures have not traded all-time highs yet. S&Ps have not either. I’m not sure if this non-confirmation means anything. Time will tell. 223.94 is still seen as an important level (call it the ‘breakage’ point) but weakness under the lower diagonal line (lower magenta line) near 230 would be enough for me to suggest that the uptrend has broken.
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Gold prices fell by 2% on Wednesday as stocks rallied on hopes of a faster than expected recovery from the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, investors shrugged of the historic civil unrest in the United States and US/China trade tensions.
SPX traded to 3130.94 today. The red line was reached but not the 78.6% retrace. On SPY however today’s high was 313.22, which is the exact 78.6% retrace. Also, a 30 minute volume reversal triggered on SPY (see chart below). This is the 4th such bearish reversal since the March low. The previous 3 were at least near term highs. I’m thinking lower from here.
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Gold is in its 8th week of sideways trade but that may be about to end. The drop from yesterday’s high is the 5th leg within the triangle consolidation. A level to note for support is 1704.40, which is 61.8% of the alternating leg. My ‘bias’ is that gold finds support there and then breaks out to the topside. Be nimble (always) though because a drop beneath 1684 would indicate that the sideways trade is a consolidation top.
The US dollar index closed lower for a fifth consecutive day on Monday as hopes of a faster than expected global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. Markets remained steady despite widespread civil unrest in the United States due to the death of George Floyd and ongoing US/China trade tensions.
GBPUSD has broken out and near term focus is on the median ine near 1.2800 with significant longer term upside potential. Support should now be 1.2420s or so, which is the top side of the line crosses recent highs.
DXY is breaking down but pay attention to 97.69 for possible support. This is the November 2018 high and center line of the channel from the March high. If price bounces from there then resistance is likely in the 98.50-99.00 zone.