Market Update – May 12

SPY DAILY

The S&P (looking at SPY here) remains magentized to the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the high.  This is also the September 2018 high and May 2019 high (that’s right…exactly flat over the last year).  Good spot to turn down?  The daily RSI profile is also bearish as the indicator has been bumping against 60 for nearly a month after registering an oversold condition.  On futures (see below), a break below the short term channel (from 5/4 low) near 2885 would serve as my bearish signal.

5/4 – ES found support today from VWAP off of the Feb high.  This level was resistance in March and support in April.  I am treating last week’s high as the bearish risk point but given the support hit today a bigger bounce is favored.  Resistance should be 2890-2930.  This is the 61.8% retrace of the drop from last week’s high, the underside of the line off of April lows, and 2020 VWAP.  Downside focus remains 2670s.

S&P 500 FUTURES (ES) 4 HOUR

COPPER 4 HOUR

Copper turned down today from the upper parallel of a Schiff fork, which was also resistance on 4/30.  I am looking lower towards the median line near 2.3290 and possibly the lower parallel near 2.2365.  This level was resistance in March and early April.

NZDUSD HOURLY

NZDUSD carved a bearish outside day today and the proposed wave count, in which wave C lower is underway, remains valid.  If this interpretation is correct, then resistance should be about .6112.  .5990 or so (trendline) is a possible bounce level.  Ultimately, low .5700s is a candidate for a higher low against the March low.  This is weekly reversal support, the 61.8% retrace, and a major long term parallel (see weekly chart below).

NZDUSD WEEKLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD finally rolled over and focus remains lower in order to correct the 5 wave advance from the March low.  Resistance should be near .6515 and initial downside focus is the May low (and long term channel center line) at .6373.  Eventually, .6240/50s will be in line for support.  This is VWAP off of the March low and the 4/21 low (see futures chart below).  Finally, the current level is reinforced by 2020 VWAP and the high volume level from 2/28.

5/10 – AUDUSD has reached proposed resistance (high on Friday was .6548) from the underside of the April trendline.  This is a good spot for AUDUSD to roll over.  It’s simply a wiating game right now.  Below the high volume at .6499 would suggest that a top is in.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUTURES DAILY

USDCAD 4 HOUR

Generally speaking, 1.3850-1.4000 has been an important zone for USDCAD since mid-March.  Price turned up from there again today and mad a bullish outside in the process.  My view remains that price is headed for the former 4th wave high at 1.4349.  Support now should be 1.3960s.

5/5 – No change to USDCAD other than reinforcing the importance of 1.3945/66 as potential support.  The 50 day average is 1.3967 and the month open is 1.3950.  Watch for resistance now from the week open at 1.4085.  The preferred wave count is a flat from the 4/13 low.  The implication is that price trades above the 4/21 high at 1.4265 and possibly into the 3/31 high (wave 4 high) at 1.4349.

EURO FUTURES HOURLY

EURUSD remains heavy and I’m wondering if sideways action since the March low (triangle?) results in a break lower, especially because Friday’s high was at VWAPs from the April low and May high.  The line off of lows since 3/23 is the bearish trigger near 1.0770 (see daily chart below).  Just be aware of the possibility.

EURUSD DAILY

USDJPY 4 HOUR

USDJPY broke out of a wedge today.  As is often the case with wedge breaks, the move after the break accelerated.  Highs from mid-April at 108.08 may provide resistance for a pullback.  If that happens, then I’ll hone in on short term price action to identify support for the next leg up but a zone to keep in mind is 106.92-107.16 (April support and May month open).

AUDJPY DAILY

AUDJPY is testing a huge level.  The August low, 61.8% of the decline from December, gap from 3/6, and trendline from the January high are 70.00/20.  High today was 70.18, which is one tick above 4/30 high.  Resistance is resistance until broken so I am looking lower right now.